AFR                                  WANTED October 31, 2008 - October has come and gone. The past ten months has been a wild ride. I can't feign happiness at what I see as bail out/handout socialist stupidity propagated by weak, incompetent and corrupt baby boomer powers that be. Thankfully, time will cure the world of their presence. But, not until after they've delivered incredible damage to their descendants. A pox upon all you narcissistic boomers! Ok, so how does the year stack up thus far? January 2, 2008 through October 31, 2008 S&P 500: down 34.0% Russell 2000: down 29.8% DJ 30: down 29.7% Nasdaq 100: down 32.6% The RS Proprietary Monkey Dart Throwing Trading Account: up 30.6% Over the past 213 trading days, I've averaged a daily profit equal to 1.44 times my daily worker bee salary. Hmmm. Really makes me wonder. Today, for instance, I made 1.42 times my daily salary in 45 minutes - before Donna even got out of bed. I love the market. I'll tell you why. It's pure. There are no politics involved. It's just me vs the tape. I direct my own destiny. I am at the mercy of myself. This is beauty. My current holdings: AA (cost basis = 10.51) IP (cost basis = 16.67) TIN (cost basis = 4.54) TXT (cost basis = 15.71) EWK (cost basis = 7.92) CIEN (cost basis = 8.97) BIG (short, revenue basis = 21.70) These are my only holdings. They may all be gone Monday. Who knows? I am bottom fishing these days. I'd like to keep some of these for longer term. Maybe even add to the position. But the market shall be my guide. My M.O. is consistent. I look at charts (time and price) only. I don't give a patootie about fundamentals or what kind of company it is or how neat it's products are. Heck, I couldn't even tell you the name of the company on 20% of my trades. Somebody tell me what the heck TXT does? I only know the ticker symbol. This keeps things simple - sterile and arms length. Never, ever fall in love with a stock. If you buy and it's not working for you cut it and run. The first loss is the best loss. Hey, I almost forgot. Do you know our weak, incompetent, corrupt baby boomer leadership has increased our national debt by $880 billion in less than two months!? Wake up! Prepare for what's coming. A little taste for you. I love this lady. She'd get my vote if I was an Ohioan. And, a Democrat, no less! Man, are we upside down. October 27, 2008 - Hedge fund blow ups. You may have noticed that the markets took a dive during the last 30 minutes of trading today. This is caused by hedge and mutual fund selling to cover redemptions. It's a vicious cycle. Selling begets selling. Each subsequent test of the lows takes out a layer of demand.  The Nikkei hit 26 year lows today, too. So, if you think our market has bottomed, think again. When the dust settles, people will be amazed at just how far markets can fall. Many folks, however, choose to disassociate. How many refuse to open their quarterly 401K statements for fear of what they'll see? Out of sight out of mind. Hope and a nickel gets you a piece of gum. Aside from the calamitous effects of ego, the concept of anchoring seals the deal. We like to form our beliefs based upon recent observances. Most of us have never experienced this type of market. We expect it to get better and soon. Why? Because, this is what we've come to expect over the past 25 years. We anchor our current views based on recent past. Unfortunately, recent past is irrelevant during unprecedented times. Do you really expect the mother of all bubbles to pass without severe pain? For what it's worth, the 2009 estimates for the aggregate earnings of the S&P 500 is about $48/share. Recognizing that Wall Street analysts are an optimistic bunch, this number could be a bit, shall we say, optimistic? What's an appropriate price of risk given the world today? I think it's about an 8 or 10 P/E ratio. 10 x 48 = 480. Hence, my wild ass guess of 500 as the ultimate destination of this particular index.  Consider current events as the Prologue to Le Tour. But, we will get a bounce one of these days.....Yea! What he said. October 26, 2008 - I will eat beef tongue if he wins. The reality is no matter who wins we lose. Either a dummy or a socialist civil rights lawyer who's never had a real job takes the prize. My money's on Obiden - a to be one term one hit wonder. Complete democrat control. God have mercy on us. Hey, I learned something useful at the zoo yesterday. Were you aware that when identifying a group of turtle doves it is incorrect to use the term 'flock'. The proper recognition is a 'pitying' as in "Wow! Look at that lovely pitying of turtle doves!" Betcha didn't know that.....I will mention again that I don't know diddly. So, when I tell you I believe the Dow will approach 3,500 you better not fall for it. However, if I happened to be someone who's been caught in the downdraft, is still in the market, too afraid to get out of the market and is facing 40% paper losses, I'd be thinking mighty hard about buying index put options as insurance against further droppage. I'd offset the cost by writing out of the money index call options. Just a thought. October 26, 2008 - The corrupt and incompetently evil central bankers will cut the fed funds rate again this week. Of course, it will do nothing because we are in a solvency crisis not a liquidity crisis as the uninformed believe. There's no purpose to borrow more when you're over-leveraged against deflating assets. So, what does an interest rate cut do? In fact, it was interest cuts under Greenspan that partially caused the current mess. How the heck do more cuts solve the mess? This is akin to giving an alcoholic a beer to calm his nerves. Damn the central bank and it's central planners. Hang them all! You know what will be interesting? The point when the fed funds rate is driven to 0%. At that point, why keep your money at risk in a dodgy bank? I'll simply withdraw mine and bury it in the yard. Seriously, I will. We are moving at warp speed toward global mayhem. This solvency crisis will lead to severe pain in emerging markets, incredible anger toward the United States and it's corrupt banking establishment and their lapdog congress, isolationism and protectionism. The end result may be another world war.  At a minimum, our government will rely on the broken window fallacy to pull us out of the economic gutter....$55 trillion in credit default swaps sloshing around the globe. Where does that end? AIG represented only 0.8% of that total....Look at this chart of the Dow. Envision 3,500....When it's all said and done, for me, granite countertops will reign supreme as the metaphor for all the silliness I witnessed this past decade. Lemmings all had to have them. The veneer of success. Nothing in the bank account but ya sure looked good....I took the kids to the San Diego Zoo yesterday. I wasn't sure who was observing who. Was the Orangutan behind the glass sad simply because of his prisoner predicament or because he was forced to look day on end at the conveyor belt of horribly unhealthy and unkempt humans stuffing their puffy faces with junk food? We are not, in aggregate, only financial idiots. We don't take care of ourselves. Our priorities are completely out of whack. Many 'men' today don't even know how to change the oil in the car. They shower with male body wash and cut their cuticles but they're clueless when it comes to turning a wrench. Maybe that's part of the problem. It is part of the problem. We're consumers not producers. We don't know how to make things. We're not self reliant. We just run to Home Depot or call the plumber. We buy crap we don't need. We run 500 rpm on the treadmill to get a raise or promotion. Once received, we up the lifestyle and flip the treadmill switch to 1,000 rpm. Did we really get anywhere? Are you any happier? You know what makes me happiest? Kissing Renee's chubby cheek. Staring at the beauty of Saddleback Mountain in the morning. Having a conversation with Donna. Watching Ray build his legos. Seeing Nicole grow up as an amazing, self reliant and aware young woman. Pretty much anything else pales. Ergo, my focus is applied accordingly....Check out this site. I love old photos. Makes me realize with sadness I'll never experience frontier life. Somewhere between then and now, the freedom curve turned against us. Imagine a time when you could do what you wanted under most circumstances. Today, you can hardly wipe your butt without regulation. October 24, 2008 - It's been a very strange three weeks. I've gone from fairly peak physical condition to an absolute slug. The world conspired to keep me from exercise. Uncanny, really. Lunch meetings, travel, etc. At every turn, something shoved my exercise aside. I think I've ridden twice, swam twice and run three or four times in the past 18 days. I feel gross. And, I have one last triathlon coming up in a few weeks....I overhear many people talking about the recent destruction of their savings. It's a testament to how one's ego can bring ruin. Ego interferes with reality. It's your ego that won't allow you to sell when you should. Your investment drop 10%. All indicators are screaming deep recession and market crash. Do you sell? Of course not. Selling would require you to recognize you've made a mistake. Your ego won't allow that. So, you sit like a frog in pot of heating water. Now you're down 40%. What to do? Sell? No! That would be an even greater hit to the ego. So, average folks across the globe will sit in unison and watch their net worth disintegrate. It's very sad. I overheard someone today discussing the merits of dollar cost averaging. "Just stay in the market and continue to dollar cost average. You'll be fine in the long run." I had to bite my tongue. Dollar cost averaging has been a colossal failure by any metric now for well over a decade. Yet, people continue to blindly follow this principle as if it's gospel. This is nature's cruel way of ensuring most folks don't retire wealthy. Everyone can't retire with a seven figure nest egg. Natural selection won't allow it. Understand that a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. Look at the Nikkei over the past 25 years to see what can happen. A 40% loss can turn into an 80% loss. The markets don't care if you don't believe they can drop further. For what it is worth, I do expect a bounce or two or three along the way to Dow at 3,500 and SP500 at 500 before the bloodletting is over. (yes, I've lowered my standards) We will hit bottom once people in general have lost all hope and absolutely dispise the stock market. This belief drives my gameplan: Capital preservation at all costs augmented with quick hit trades and very selective bottom fishing. Buy and hold and dollar cost averaging are concepts driven by Wall Street and mutual fund industry folks to keep you poor and earn them fees. October 19, 2008 - I ran across this old Russian poster today titled, "No Escape from the People's Revenge." I immediately thought of our upcoming elections and John McCain's chances of winning. Absolutely nil. It'll be Reagan/Mondale Landslide Part II. Personally, I despise both parties. I believe either candidate is terrible for this country. I believe both parties are terrible for this country. As a classical liberal, I am disturbed by our path. We are being driven to socialism. Socialism and freedom cannot coexist. If you think you are free, look again. Each day, government gets larger. Our country gets weaker. Our people are burdened with more law, regulation, tax and interference. It's stifling. It is the road to serfdom that we're on. Forget party lines. Vote every incumbent bastard out of office this November. I watched in irritated amusement yesterday as a handful of protestors stood on a street corner waiving their "Say Yes to Proposition 8" signs. Our government loves this kind of stuff. Keep the sheeple focused on the vacuous and inane. God forbid they think about things that really matter. Do you think I give a crap about gay couples who want to marry? My metric is simple. Does the measure increase or decrease the long arm of government? Does Big Brother grow or shrink by the outcome? These questions are all I need to evaluate any proposition which I am afforded the privilege to vote on....A summit of losers. Sad, but true. October 18, 2008 - We're entering our fourth month in California and love it here more every day. I could not imagine moving back to Florida. I could not have imagined making that statement six months ago. The West has opened my eyes. It's so beautiful and there's so much to do and explore out here. Mountains are in. Swamps, mosquitoes and humidity are out. You may recall I was laid off in February. After that experience I decided to step away from the life of a cubicle sharecropper to trade full time. It may have surprised you, then, when I shifted course and re-entered the world of synthetic fibers, artificial light and acoustical tiles. Three reasons, really. Three little mouths to feed. I knew our economy was headed for darker times. What if I blew it as a trader and lost a bunch of money? And, when I needed it most, what if I couldn't find a decent job? Good jobs will be very hard to find over the next few years. I decided I had to play it safe. I can still trade on the sidelines while earning a stable income. Best of both worlds. There are sacrifices, of course. I may not make as much on the trading side but I should be able to make it up with the salary. I absolutely love the markets. Trading is in my blood and I'll do it for life. In the meantime, I'll continue to bask under the florescent lights and diligently save my pesos while working in a meaningful industry. October 17, 2008 - We have good days and bad days. This was a relatively good day. Way to go, kid. Well, I survived the past two weeks unscathed. The markets were murder. I had one "man stares into the abyss" episode but did not panic and held my position. It ended up in my favor but I sure fell into hope mode for a bit, against my earlier proselytizing. You wanna hear about it? What the heck. Ok, so my bread and butter trade over the past six months has been Baidu.com (ticker: BIDU). I've watched this stock daily now for a year and feel like I know it well. For many good reasons, I've been confident with this trade. It goes as follows: Two weeks before options expiration, I write deep out of the money naked call options and stick the premium in my pocket. Two weeks later, when options expire and the stock price ends up under my strike price, I keep the premium free and clear. It's been worth $3k-$5k every month. Well, last week I was holding 30 contracts. 10 at 320 strike. 10 at 280 strike and 10 and 250 strike. Last Friday, BIDU closed at 213. Five trading days to go and I was well in the clear. That is, until the governments of the world united to stick it to the little guy. BIDU suffered the mother of all short squeezes on Monday. Up 25%! It was unreal. I could feel each exrutiating turn of the vise. Tuesday morning BIDU opened at 274! What's (274 - 250)*1000!? It's a heart attack my friends. Anyhow, I stuck to my guns confident the squeeze would reverse once all the weak hands cleared from the deck. BIDU closed today under 250 and all my options expired worthless. I got to keep the premiums and now we're getting mountain bikes instead of lobotomies. Don't try this at home folks unless you've got nerves of steel. I think that was the government's last bullet. Not sure there's anything left for them to manipulate the markets. Notice that this enormous bounce didn't last too long?  Now, this is my kind of person. The world could use more like him. October 14, 2008 - Well, we sure got the big market pop yesterday. See now. Isn't it great to be a socialist? First come the banks. Then come the airlines, automakers, insurance companies and lord knows what else. It's a great thing when the largest debtor of all time sops up ownership of everything. We can now all pretend everything is fine. At least until we become like Iceland. In the meantime, I'm just chipping away at gold, Swiss Francs and a little Chinese yuan. They may go down in the interim but I betcha they'll be at amazing levels within a few years.  Free market capitalism is completely dead. If you want it, you're gonna have to leave the country. To where, I do not know. But that King Doofus, George W. Bush wins the RL Skaggs '2x4-in-the-Teeth' Award for this beauty. October 12, 2008 - Alright, who stuck me on the PediPaws email list? Every day, a dozen PediPaws, the Incredible Pet Nail Trimmer, emails. I chew mine off. Pez can do the same. October 12, 2008 - Watch this video. Specifically, note the last 20 seconds. Taleb's a smart guy. I read his book, The Black Swan. You should too. A couple of more books you might consider: Crash Proof and America's Bubble Economy. Better read them quick. There are several reasons why I think the S&P and DJ-30 may drop to 400ish and 3,500ish, respectively. If you look at the Dow from it's peak of 386.10 on 9/16/1929 to it's trough of 40.6 on 7/22/1932 you will note that this represents an 89.5% decline. On 10/15/07, the DJ-30 hit 14,198.10. The same level of decline would put the DJ-30 at 1,493. Arguably, we are in worse shape now than we were then. Ever the optimist, I don't believe we'll drop that low. So, I'm saying 3,500. But, you don't believe that could possibly happen, do you, young ostrich? I'm quite certain folks in 1930 couldn't imagine the Dow hitting 40, either. It's important to recognize that our known paradigm of American prosperity could be shifting dramatically. Don't allow yourself to get cornered into 'hope'. Be proactive. Prepare. Throw your Suze Orman books into the fire. Once you've succumbed to 'hope' you are screwed. You've lost control. Do you understand what I mean? We can all hope for world peace. At a macro level, that's fine. It's also totally out of your control. I'm talking about your own personal micro-level world. That which you can control. Ignoring the signs that are flashing disaster, you continue to 'hope' your home equity or your savings account will rebound soon and all shall be well. You'll be back to double digit returns in no time. The reality is it's 1930.  By the way, I found a local guy who actually has gold in stock. Bought some more yesterday. My plan is rather simple. I add to the gold pile, stay in cash, short hits in and out of the market, spend very little and prepare for the absolute worst. My absolute worst case is loss of both jobs. If that happens, I wait until summer, buy a used camper and we move in. Home school the kids if required. Travel the country with complete mobility. Search for odd jobs and live on the super-cheap until the storm passes. Drastic, I know. But, if you don't have a worst case contingency, how do you begin to prepare? October 12, 2008 - Was checking out the status of the old rental this morning. The Hillsborough County Property Appraiser appraises it at $499k which is laughable. Poor Washington Mutual, or rather, poor JP Morgan Chase. Over $700k loan on a property worth $300k tops. I bet the house is a real eyesore by now. The appraiser also values our old home at $405k which we sold in Sep '07 for $465k. The appraiser's 'Just Value' tends to lag the market.  And, then there's Lee County. Just a sample of a few grains within an enormous, dysfunctional sandbox. Thank God for Big Brother (extreme sarcasm). Word games: The world economy is to a star as our immediate future is to BLANK? October 11, 2008 eve - A $2 trillion budget deficit for 2009.  Add that to our $10 trillion federal debt and we get, oh what, $12 trillion?  That's $40,000 for every living American.  Doesn't seem so bad when you break it down like that, does it?  Nonetheless, it is.  I am telling you we are heading for disaster.  Interest rates will skyrocket right about the time the 2011 bulge of adjustable rate Alt-A mortgages reset and the economy is in tatters.  More housing gloom.  Not to mention the Zimbabwefication of the dollar.  October 11, 2008 - As much as I despise government (and believe the etch-a-sketch needs to be wiped clean for a 'do-over'), I believe our country's boneheads better get with the other country's boneheads and figure out something fast. Unless you live under peat moss in an Irish bog or spend all your free time watching shows like Tyra, you are well aware that we're experiencing capital market meltdown. We're 'lucky' participants in a once-in-a-century event. Unless the pipes are unclogged within the next few days, we, the little fellas of Main Street are going to start feeling the pinch (grab a handful of your belly fat, insert between the channel lock grips and squeeze very hard). For instance, your formally stable company won't be able to meet payroll. Goods from around the world will stockpile, unable to be shipped causing global shortages. The economic world will cease to exist. Assault rifle and bunker salesmen will become the nouveau rich.  Yes, it is that bad. I know people will think I'm nuts, but I'm going to go out on a limb and revise my prediction. S&P 500 goes to 400 and DJ-30 goes to 3,500 within two years. Hopefully, I am way off target. October 9, 2008 - Yep, we got a bounce alright. The bounce of a dead cat falling from the third story window. Boy, I am glad my exposure is limited. I do believe we've migrated from denial into panic. There are a few hardy souls out there like the guy standing next to me in the gym as we watched the closing bell of the Dow. He said he was down 40% but wasn't worried. "It'll come back." It sure will, in about ten years. There will be a bounce very soon. And when it hits, it'll be a big one. It will fake everyone into believing the worst is over. Right about time Mr. Retail hops back in, she'll roll hard again and we'll suffer death by a thousand cuts through most of the Obama term. Just my guess - spent some time today studying the Dow from 1929 thru 1934. Anyhow, this crash exceeded all my expectations with respect to speed. Two weeks ago, there was a moment that I owned 3,500 shares of TWM with average price of 70. I traded in and out of it before the big run. It closed today at 129ish. That would have been a once in a lifetime trade had I the conviction to hold. Now, it appears the world's wheels are wobbling off the chassis with frightening speed. This concerns me from a dollar holder perspective. When the dollar does implode, it will happen with the same intensity and we won't have time to react. This is why I am furiously seeking physical gold because by the time that day arrives, it'll be too late. I may do some shopping this week at local coin shops. Take a good, long look at the current events with Iceland. They are the future of the U.S. I know this within my bones. Imagine yourself waking up one day to a world that no longer accepted the dollar. What's your paper now worth? Hey, I hope I am wrong. But I'm not. You probably didn't think my prediction of S&P500 to 800 was accurate either, did you? October 8, 2008 - I allowed my loose tongue to get the best of me below.  My apologies.  I think it's time for a group hug and warm cliche.  It's always darkest before the dawn.  Yawn.  Now, for some predictions born from an addled mind and hastily and sloppily compiled.  We're getting the bounce I've been waiting for tomorrow.  I can feel it.....Ten reasons why most folks aren't rich. Donna and I have avoided all ten of these points over the years. Hence, we've been able to save surprisingly more than our looks appear.  Which is why I'm a little testy over all these damn handouts to people who seem to think it's their God given right to entitlement. October 7, 2008 eve - I am beyond stunned. I am beyond pissed. I have completely lost faith in this government. There are 300 million people in this country. The best we get are Obama and McCain!? We're doomed. Rome has burned. It's all over but the anarchy, man.  I knew McCain was stupid. After tonight, though, he's beyond stupid.  He's dangerous, clueless, incompetent, uninformed and really stupid.  He's going to order the Treasury to buy up all the bad mortgages in the US if he's elected president! I, I, I don't even know where to begin! How did we fall so far so fast!?  I turn off.  I'm a citizen only by force at this point.  We are f****d.  We are so f****d. October 7, 2008 - Good Lord.  We just experienced the third worst five day period in market history.  I was expecting bad but this exceeds my wildest expectations.  Either we're all going back to living in caves or a big bounce is coming.  This looks like the end of the world.  I do expect by now most people are sick of the red ink, fed up with the market and just want to get the hell out.  I am itching to get back in.  So, I did.  Just a little.  I bought QLD today and promptly went under water by $3.50/share.  I just have to believe we get an interim rally.  If we don't and we continue to plummet, then this could very well be 1929 repeated.  Had you bought the market in Oct '29 it would have taken you twenty five years to break even.  Likewise, had you bought the market in '64 it would have taken 17 years to break even.  So, here we are today.  Back to 1998 prices.  The stock market can be ruthless. October 6, 2008 Eve - I am rethinking my foreign bank account concept given the situation in Europe. Their banks are worse than our banks. I've read many of the big ones are leveraged 50:1 which spells disaster. Now that our gubmint has increased FDIC limits to $250k I feel pretty safe keeping my stash over here. The gold play is insurance against the additional dollar debasement which I believe is around the corner. Some day, there may be a big run on the dollar by foreign holders. As the dollar implodes, people run to their bank to pull deposits and attempt to buy gold. Then, to stem the self feeding vortex down to dollar hell, the gubmint steps in and declares gold ownership illegal again. Bernanke must be having an ulcer by now. Will he quit before he gets fired?  Will Hank Paulson be in jail five years from now? The level of acrimony is rising. The more recognizable of the ex-investment banker grand poobahs really ought to consider self exile for their own safety..Nice call Cramer. Way to go out on a limb. The market's down 30% and then he issues a sell signal. A contrarian just might consider that a strong buy signal. By the way, I sold the RSX and DIA this morning. October 6, 2008 Eve - See, this is the kind of thing that really pisses off the enlightened masses. The frog marches are definitely coming. Only a matter of time. The Ken Lay/Jeff Skilling trials will be tame by comparison....The market saw significant buying at around 3pm today. This could mark a short term bottom and tradable rally until the final leg downward. I could be wrong, too. But, we are now closer to the final bottom I think. I dipped a toe on the long side this morning. Bought some DIA at 96ish and RSX at around 18. RSX is an exchange traded fund that mimics the Russian market. The Russian market has fallen 70% in the past 4 months. It was down over 24% at one time today. That smells of capitulation to me. Heck it could go to 5 for all I know. But, I think it is worth the bet (at least until tomorrow). I did place an order for Krugerrands today. It's going to take up to 14 weeks for delivery! There's a lot of demand for the physical stuff these days. Unreal.  Anyhow, I bought the gold as a hedge in case the financial world really does unravel and our fiat currency goes to hell.  I'll just stash it in my underground bunker next to the assault rifles and canned goods.  A final note - I provide my thoughts here for two reasons: 1) I have long opined that many Americans have been living in a fairy tail veneer while the dark hand of comeuppance was biding its time.  Hopefully, my musings have encouraged independent thought and preparation for both the world at hand and the one that awaits.  It's something I wanted to share with others.  2) It's a living document that my kids can someday read and glean what life was like during these remarkable times.  I, in no way, intend this to be any sort of investment advice.  Remember, independent thought! October 6, 2008 - A few weeks ago I mentioned that I bought a large position in TWM (an ETF that moves inverse to the Russell 2000). It was, by far, the largest position I've ever taken in the market. I was in at $70 and was gonna hold until mid 80's. But, no I get cute and start day trading it. I did very well. Was happy. Figured I was a smart guy. I deviated from plan. This morning, premarket it is up over $90. Which means I left half year's salary on the table by not holding as planned. This morning I am buying physical bullion via Krugerrands. I am not convinced we are going to have true deflation. More like disinflation as per the guys over at itulip.com forecast. After that, lots of inflation. Ben is tossing money out of helicopters right now which is one of several reasons why the FXY is gapping open this morning and frustrating me since it was on my buy list yesterday. You may recall that FDR decreed gold ownership illegal back in the 30's and it wasn't until 1974 that Americans could own bullion. You know what's been happening lately? Poor folk trying to make rent have been hawking their gold jewelry at the pawn shop while rich folk have been buying bullion en masse. Rats escaping the rising flood. October 5, 2008 Update - Anecdotal Proof the US Dollar is worth less than toilet paper: I was cruisin' the trail on my 6 mile run today when sudden gastrointestinal urges forced me to into the nearest brush. A quick survey revealed I was not the first inhabitant to, er, 'use' these particular facilities. At my feet was a wad of dollar bills obviously left behind by someone who faced hard decisions. Needless to say, I had no inclination to disturb this find, if you know what I mean. O'Reilly is a blowhard and I am no fan of his. But, I do love the evisceration of Barney Frank. What the heck is the matter with you people in Massachusetts? Why do you continue vote for this incompetent buffoon? No wonder things are such a mess. We are run by monkeys. The only way to right this ship is to embark on a deep steam cleaning of the congressional carpet. Every one of these bums (excluding Ron Paul) must go. Many must go to prison. This, of course, will not happen until the time of maximum pain. We humans wait until the bitter end to cause change. Sort of like waiting until the cancer's gone stage 4 before going on a healthy diet and exercise regimen. But, it will happen some day. October 5, 2008 - I read through the bailout bill that was passed yesterday. $700 billion of additional taxpayer obligation just wasn't enough for our irresponsible politicians. No, they had to attach more pork. That's how the votes were bought. Collectively, our congressmen are so unbelievably bad. Their credo, "None of us is as dumb as all of us." Ask yourself this, "Where does a country that runs budget deficits even in the best of economic times obtain $700 billion?" They either borrow it or print it. (Perhaps they borrow it from the very banks they bail out!? We called that an 'endless do-loop' back in college Fortran 77 programming class.) Ultimately, it's going to lead to a collapse of the dollar. More on that later when I lay out predictions for the future. In the meantime, there's something very irritating about this photo. Oh yea, they're smiling as they hammer another nail in our coffin. Nancy, I'd love to introduce the fine grains of a soft pinewood 2x4 to the enamel in your teeth. Sadly, the uninformed, underedumucated, Dr. Phil-watching masses will vote these retards back in office. October 4, 2008 - I'd guess that after today, we are due for a big market rally. Heck, maybe even the final bottom.  Who knows?!  We'll probably get a rate cut this Sunday and  'Depression' talk is getting some mainstream action. Check out the cover of Time and The Economist.  They are always late to the party.  So, maybe this next week? I was a bit surprised by today's action. I'd have thought the market would have rallied. But, it was nothing more than buy the rumor and sell the news. Nobody wants to hold anything over the weekend. No trust. Really, though.  In spite of the increased chatter mentioned above, I still believe in 800ish for the SP 500.  But, what do I know?.....I drive by a Ford dealership every day. It has a parking lot full of those big F-350's. Not a soul walking the lots. They've got to be hurting. Home prices here are dropping like stones, too. So are plasma televisions. Lots of goodies out there to buy on the cheap, if one is so inclined to do so. October 3, 2008 - I subscribe to a daily report over at stocktiming.com. I find the information very useful. He says that today, we are at a critical juncture from a technical perspective as it relates to the buying and selling of institutions. The term 'precipice' was used. Depending on whether or not the House approves the bailout this market could "have a disastrous plunge or a bounce to the upside." Not exactly enticing words for me to do much today. He also mentioned that there's chatter of another Fed rate cut by end of today if the bailout is not passed. Again, how long before the rate is cut to 0%? And, when that doesn't fix things, what's next? October 2, 2008 - This recession is going to be very long and very deep. There will be pitchforks and the big banker dudes like Mozilla ought to leave this country now. He should move to Brazil and sire a few children to avoid extradition. These guys will go to prison when Main street pain hits a crescendo. We need to go through this process. The quicker we take our lumps the quicker we reach the other side. As any long time reader knows, I have been quite negative on the U.S. for the past few years. I stopped writing about triathlon long ago. Funny thing is, I'm actually starting to feel bullish again. It's still too early to act, but I'm now well positioned to pick through the ashes. Assuming Donna and I can hold onto our jobs for the next few years, we'll be in great financial shape. I cannot state more emphatically how important it is in this day for you and I to become as financially literate as possible. I've long been mystified how most folks easily entrust their finances to total strangers while, at the same time would defend to the death their flat screen tv's and granite countertops from theft. Let me tell you, it is hard enough for me to manage four or five stock positions on a given day. I couldn't imagine managing multiple client portfolios effectively. I mean, how do you know if your advisor is treating your account prudently? When a decision is made to buy or sell a security does he trade yours first or is it the thirtieth trade on a day when the market has a violent move? Are you given the "Stocks always go up long term. Buy and hold is a good strategy. You can't time the market." story? That stuff is regurgitated straight from MBA class or CFP textbooks. It's the thinking of the sheep and sheep get sheared. I always want to barf when I hear someone say that. They lose credibility instantly with me.  Just take a look at the stock charts of Coca Cola, General Electric, Pfizer, Microsoft, etc. Sure, you may not be able to perfectly time the market, but that doesn't validate the logic of holding something that's headed to the gutter. If you bought any one of the stocks mentioned above ten years ago you've lost money. I don't know about you, but I'm not keen on taking a beating for a decade to earn 0%. I learned my lesson the hard way back in 2000. Never again, said I. Very simple: If the market is in an uptrend I am a buyer. If the market is in a downtrend I am a seller. I don't stick my head in the sand hoping it'll all just go away. I accept failure and move on quickly. We are in a deflationary environment at the moment. Therefore, I believe stocks have further to fall. They are maybe half way there now (I'm an optimist!). The Russell 2000 has yet to really swan dive. Once it's rolled hard and caught up with the down swing of the other indices, I'll start thinking about going long for more than a day. In the meantime, this next decade is going to be very tough. The most important thing you can do next to maintaining your health is to learn how to invest. Figure it out for yourself. Become self reliant. Nobody cares more about your money than you and you're going to need to watch it like a hawk. Good luck!